Study: Relations between cyberattacks, conventional attacks and information attacks in Ukraine are in line with the russian concept of “hybrid warfare”

State Service of Special Communications and Information Protection of Ukraine and and experts of the Ukrainian Economic Security Council with the assistance of the Strategic Communications Office of the Secretariat of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and experts from TRUMAN Agency have analyzed the relationships between events and correlation among various types of russia’s attacks throughout 2022. The study shows a clear connection between cyberattacks, conventional attacks and information attacks that, in turn, correlate with the concept of hybrid warfare, accepted in russia.

• The most recent example of such attacks is in the energy sector. It has been under special attention of russian hackers since the beginning of the invasion and to date, when russia attacks energy facilities with missiles and bomber drones. russian propaganda took over right after the initial missile attacks with the narrative that power outages were caused by the government’s ‘gimmicks’ rather than missile attacks.
• Another example of such connection is that conventional attacks are usually preceded by attacks in media and cyberspace. A year ago, on January 14, russia started a cyberwar against our country. It was when russian hackers waged a massive attack on our government institutions. 22 government agencies’ websites suffered due to the attack, but the hackers still failed to achieve their strategic objective, i.e. to deal critical damage to our infrastructure. This attack was followed by a series of powerful DDoS attacks in mid-February and cyberattacks on the eve of the invasion. Those attacks were aimed at destruction of infrastructure and spreading panic and distrust among the public. Yet, russian hackers had no success even during the war.
• Besides, the study has revealed a distinct link between russia’s military or diplomatic failures and subsequent ‘revenge’ attacks.

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

• Recommendation 1: Ukrainian experience should be systematized and used to counter Russia and other authoritarian regimes.
• Recommendation 2: Defence doctrines should adapt to the requirements of the times. Logical connections between different dimensions of Russian aggression can be used for forecasting and modeling.
• Recommendation 3. International legal approaches to the legal definition of aggression should change (aggression in the XXI century is not only conventional). Moreover, responsibility should extend to all manifestations of aggression, not just the classic ones.
• Recommendation 4. Cyberattacks can be equated to war crimes. Therefore, international humanitarian law should establish a stricter framework for unconventional attacks.
• Recommendation 5. The multidimensionality of Russian aggression proves the need for sanctions against the most critical sectors of the economy. Sanctions should be strengthened, and international companies should leave Russian market. Today, complicity in aggression is not only the sale of drones but also the provision of access to technology.

Read the Report: CYBER, ARTILLERY, PROPAGANDA. GENERAL OVERVIEW OF THE DIMENSIONS OF RUSSIAN AGGRESSION